Page not found. Your pixels are in another canvas.
A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there is an XML version available for digesting as well.
This is a page not in th emain menu
A number of group members are presenting work at upcoming meetings by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM).
Aaron Match just submitted a very elegant paper on the impact of global warming on ozone in the tropical stratosphere to GRL! Combining the classic leaky pipe model of the stratosphere with Chapman photochemistry and a simple representation of tropospheric ozone destruction, we show that the apparant upward shift of ozone in response to global warming is actually due to fortituous overlap of several different processes.
Marguerite Brown just submitted a very insightful paper on the role of moisture in the mid-latitude circulation to JAS! She builds on a pioneering work by Lapeyre and Held to use a moist 2-layer quasi-geostrophic model to tease out the competing roles of moisture and temperature in driving the midlatitude atmosphere.
Zac Espinosa’s study to replace a physics-based gravity wave parameterization with a neural network based emulator was just accepted in Geophysical Research Letters!
In a continuation of my collaboration with Chaim Garfinkel, Ian White, and Martin Jucker on the development of MiMA, and with long time colleague (and former office mate!) Seok-Woo Son, we’ve just submitted a paper to the Journal of Climate on the response of the troposphere to stratospheric ozone loss.
Following up on our initial submission last January, we’ve just resubmitted our paper on using machine learning to represent un(der)resolved gravity waves in atmospheric models.
The kitchen has been busy: two papers are now in press. First, Marianna Linz’s paper on mixing in the stratosphere was just accepted by the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. We show how the vertical gradients in age allow us to quantify the exchange of air between the tropics and extratropics. Increased mixing leads to better baking, right? In this case, it’s very important for transporting ozone and water vapor through the stratosphere, two trace gases that impact us on the surface, protecting us from UV radiation and keeping us a bit warmer, respectively.
To conserve the number of papers in my queue, Justin Finkel submitted a new manuscript just as our MWR paper was accepted. Exploring stratospheric rare events with transition path theory and short simulations, submitted to the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, takes a deeper dive into the idealized Holton and Mass (1976) model of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events using Transition Path Theory, TPT for short.
While I was returning from summer travels, the journals went into overdrive and three papers were accepted and/or came out in press!
The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project report has been published in an early online release! This has been nearly a decade in the making – I had only one child when I first got involved – but the long effort has really paid off. I am of course partial to Chapter 6, Extratropical Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling, but the entire report is full of information about the reanalyses and the stratosphere.
Please see our paper exploring the role of “isentropic mixing” on the transport of trace gases through the stratosphere, just submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
Please see our on the impact of stratospheric ozone loss on the atmosphere across the latest reanalysis products, just accepted in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
A fun article on NYU’s new Greene supercomputer and how it allows us to explore climate change came out in NYU IT’s Download Newsletter.
Please see our new paper providing a recipe for generating and optimizing a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in your very own GCM, just submitted to JAMES.
Check out our new paper exploring the origin of tracer transport biases in atmospheric models, just submitted to the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
Please see our new paper adopting a novel prediction framework from computational chemistry to forecast extreme meteorological events, just submitted to Monthly Weather Review. The paper, led by Justin Finkel, presents a proof of concept study using a stochastically forced version of the classic Holton and Mass (1976) model of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. We establish the “committor”, which provides the ideal combination of variables for predicting SSWs (where an SSW is a transition between the two fixed points in the Holton-Mass model). We also establish a method to compute it from relatively short integrations, i.e., integrations that are short relative to the time scale of the event, and much shorter than the return time scale of events.
The newly minted Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation has organized a virtual conference on climate change from 1-5 March, 2021. Speakers including experts in applied mathematics and climate research – and both, including my colleague Laure Zanna! It’s my understanding that the meeting is free to atttend, but that you must register in advance.
As my family and I cannibalize each other on our solitary descent into the abyss that is remote elementary education, intrepid collaborators will be hitting the virtual road to present at the vEGU this April! Check out these presentations:
Despite tremendous advances in our understanding of the atmosphere and our capability to simulate it with numerical models on the fastest computers in the world, their remain processes that we can not accurately represent from basic physical principles. In some cases, it is an issue of computational power: we cannot resolve all relevant scales for climate prediction, from planetary scale weather systems (10^6=1,000,000’s of meters) to cloud and aerosol particles on the microscale (10^-6=0.000001 m). In other cases, we do not yet know all the relevant physics! We still need to do our best to represent these processes based on what we can simulate. Traditionally this has been done with physically motivated schemes, but there’s growing in interest in using machine learning to help. Here we take the first steps of using an artificial neural network to help parameterize atmospheric gravity waves.
Suppose you could build your own planet: create continents, lift mountains, carve out the bathymetry of the ocean to help direct its currents! What would you need to do to create the monsoonal circulation on Earth, the sharp seasonal transitions in rainfall that play such a huge role in the climate of South and East Asia?
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
The short answer is: no! For a longer, more complete answer, please see our new paper on the representation of the stratospheric ozone hole on the Southern Hemisphere in the four latest atmospheric reanalyses, just submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Our review article on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, led by Mark Baldwin and Blanca Ayarzuguena, was just accepted for publication in Reviews in Geophysics. We’ve learned a great deal about “explosionartigen Stratosphärenerwärmungen” since they were first discovered by Prof. Dr. Scherhag almost 70 years ago!
A number of postdoctoral positions are available through a project funded by NSF’s Cyberinfrastructure for Sustained Scientific Inquiry (CSSI) program. This highly collaborative project between four institutions will develop data-driven parameterizations of atmospheric gravity waves and explore their impact on climate variability and change. The project will involve novel balloon-based observations, high-resolution atmospheric model simulations, machine learning, and atmospheric modeling.
I am aware that things have been rather quiet on my blog in the last months. In addition to my new found profession as an elementary school teacher (alas, not a very good one, but our efforts to get the kids transferred to another class were fruitless), we’ve been hard at work on revisions. Some very detailed and careful reviews allowed us to make two good papers even better!
After a month in editorial system purgatory, just submitted to Geophysical Research Letters, our paper on “Downward migration of the zonal-mean circulation in the tropical atmosphere”, led by Kevin DallaSanta.
Just submitted to the Journal of Climate, our paper on “The impact of SST biases in the tropical east Pacific and Agulhas current region on atmospheric stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere”.
A quick update on an earlier post: our paper exploring the impact of global warming stratosphere-troposphere coupling, was just accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Look here for more details!
Please see our new paper exploring stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere, just accepted in the Journal of Climate. What are stationary waves, you ask? In laymen’s terms, they are variations in climate with longitude, for example, the reason why the weather in Madrid is quite different from that here in New York, even though we’re both situated at nearly the exact same latitude.
Please see our new paper exploring the impact of global warming stratosphere-troposphere coupling, just submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
Aman Gupta is defending his thesis on Wednesday 18 December at 1:15 in Warren Weaver 1302. Come see the world’s leading expert on trace gas transport through the stratosphere by the dynamical cores of atmospheric models!
Please see our new paper exploring the role of model numerics on trace gas transport, just submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
Please see our new paper on the tropospheric response to extreme events in the stratosphere, just submitted to the Journal of Climate. Update: this paper was accepted for publication in January 2020!
Our commentary for the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, “Imagining Simpler Worlds to Understand the Complexity of our Own”, was just accepted for publication. It follows on a nice paper by Zhihong Tan, Orli Lachmy, and Tiffany Shaw that recently appeared in the same journal.
Please see our chapter on extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling, just submitted as Chapter 6 of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, S-RIP. I’m quite pleased by the final (or at least, submitted) product! Kudos to Patrick Martineau, my co-lead on this 17 author effort which started over 6 years ago. Six years ago, a far away time when I only had one kid. To say that I’m very relieved to have this submitted is an understatement!
An updated on our workshop on the Atmospheric Circulation in a Changing Climate, 22-25 October 2019, Madrid, a joint DynVarMIP, SPARC DynVar, and SNAP meeting, hosted by Universidad Complutense Madrid, Instituto de Geociencias.
Check out our line up of invited speakers!
- Rolando Garcia NCAR, USA (Keynote talk on the history of stratospheric research modeling!)
- Blanca Ayarzaguena Porras UCM, Spain,
- Elisabeth Blanc, CEA, France,
- Paulo Ceppi Imperial College London, UK,
- Peter Hitchcock Cornell, USA,
- Martin Jucker UNSW, Australia,
- Sarah Kang UNIST, Korea,
- Andrea Lang SUNY Albany, USA
- Michael Sigmond CCCma, Canada
Just submitted to JAMES: our commentary on a nice paper by Zhihong Tan, Orli Lachmy, and Tiffany Shaw that recently appeared in the same journal. We make the case that models of simpler atmospheres – which are distinct from simple models of our atmosphere – can help us understand the circulation response of our atmosphere to global warming, and enable us to build better climate prediction models!
Please come to our workshop on the Atmospheric Circulation in a Changing Climate.
22-25 October 2019, Madrid
A joint DynVarMIP, SPARC DynVar, and SNAP meeting, hosted by Universidad Complutense Madrid, Instituto de Geociencias. A substantial amount of travel support is available for Early Career Scientists and participants from underrepresented nations!
Our manuscript for Reviews of Geophysics, Model hierarchies for understanding atmospheric circulation, was just accepted! Way to go Penny! In particular, I like our new figure illustrating the web of models around state-of-the-art Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs). These hierarchies of simpler models enables us to understand and improve our weather and climate prediction systems.
While Rome and New York receive the same amount of energy from the sun (being situated at the same latitude), the former experiences a much warmer climate, particularly in the winter months. This is due to large variations in the atmospheric flow with longitude, known as “stationary waves”. It has long been known that these variations are generated by differences between land and sea, topography, and variations in sea surface temperatures. But just how do these different components add up to produce our climate?
The whole group is hitting the road. Check out talks in Boulder, Palo Alto, and uptown, to be helf over the next couple weeks!
Coming to the AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix next week (6-10 January)? Check out these presentations!
What limits our ability to characterize the variability of the large scale circulation of the extratropics?
Please see our paper Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: Reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty, just accepted in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Patrick Martineau and I show that reanalyses have gotten quite good, and we are chiefly limited by the finite length of the observational records. In this sense, we are starved for data, not model physics!
Deterministic weather forecast are only possible for one to two weeks. (Or in other words, we just can’t predict whether it will be sunny or rainy 14 days from now.) But can we say something about the weather over the next few weeks, for example, will it be warmer and drier than average, even if we can’t say exactly which days will be sunny?
Why do some Sudden Stratospheric Warmings appear to influence the troposphere, shifting the jet stream equatorward over the next 2-3 months, while others don’t? Much of the issue is tropospheric variability, which can overwhelm the influence of the stratosphere. However, our recent study, The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors shows that there are regional patterns that can help us predict whether a Sudden Warming is more likely to have an influence on the troposphere!
Aman is a PhD student in my group.
Postdoctoral Research Scientist, 2014-2016.
Vallis, G. K., E. P. Gerber, P. J. Kushner and B. A. Cash, 2004: A Mechanism and Simple Dynamical Model of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Annular Modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 264-280, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0264:AMASDM>2.0.CO;2.
Local and hemispheric dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation, annular patterns and the zonal index
Vallis G. K. and E. P. Gerber, 2008: Local and Hemispheric Dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Annular Patterns and the Zonal Index. Dyn. Atmos. and Ocean, 44, 184-212, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.04.003.
Testing the Annular Mode Autocorrelation Time Scale in Simple Atmospheric General Circulation Models
Gerber, E. P., S. Voronin, and L. M. Polvani, 2008: Testing the Annular Mode Autocorrelation Timescale in Simple Atmospheric General Circulation Models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1523-1536, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2211.1.
Annular mode time scales in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models
Gerber, E. P., L. M. Polvani, and D. Ancukiewicz, 2008: Annular Mode Time Scales in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL035712.
Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in a Relatively Simple AGCM: The Importance of Stratospheric Variability
Gerber, E. P. and L. M. Polvani, 2009: Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling in a Relatively Simple AGCM: The Importance of Stratospheric Variability. J. Climate, 22, 1920-1933, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2548.1.
Gerber, E. P., C. Orbe, and L. M. Polvani, 2009: Stratospheric Influence on the Tropospheric Circulation Revealed by Idealized Ensemble Forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24801, doi:10.1029/2009GL040913.
Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology
Kidston, J. and E. P. Gerber, 2010: Intermodel Variability of the Poleward Shift of the Austral Jet Stream in the CMIP3 Integrations Linked to Biases in 20th Century Climatology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09708, doi:10.1029/2010GL042873.
Gerber, E. P., M. P. Baldwin, and CCMVal-2 coauthors, 2010: Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Annular Mode Variability in Chemistry-Climate Models. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M06, doi:10.1029/2009JD013770.
Son, S.-W., E.P. Gerber, J. Perlwitz, L.M. Polvani, N. Gillett, K.-H.Seo, and CCMVal-2 coauthors, 2010: The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone on Southern Hemisphere Circulation Changes: A Multimodel Assessment. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M07, doi:10.1029/2010JD014271.
Ndarana, T., D. W. Waugh, L. M. Polvani, G. Correa, and E. P. Gerber, 2012: Antarctic ozone depletion and trends in tropopause Rossby wave breaking. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 13, 164-168, doi:10.1002/asl.384.
Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System
Gerber, E. P., A. Butler, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, J. Perlwitz, L. M. Polvani, F. Sassi, A. A. Scaife, T. A. Shaw, S.-W. Son and S. Watanabe, 2012: Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 845-859, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00145.1.
Abrupt Circulation Responses to Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM
Wang, S., E. P. Gerber, and L. M. Polvani, 2012: Abrupt Circulation Responses to Upper Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM. J. Climate, 25, 4097-4115, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00166.1.
The role of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over northern Europe
Tomassini, L., E. P. Gerber, M. P. Baldwin, F. Bunzel and M. Giorgetta, 2012: The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over Northern Europe. J. Adv. in Model. Earth Syst., 4, M00A03, doi:10.1029/2012MS000177.
The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere
Garfinkel, C. I., D. W. Waugh, and E. P. Gerber, 2013: The Effect of Tropospheric Jet Latitude on Coupling between the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Troposphere. J. Climate, 26, 2077-2097, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00301.1.
Charlton-Perez, A. J. and 27 Coauthors (including E. P. Gerber), 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2494-2505, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125.
Sherwood, S. C., M. J. Alexander, A. R. Brown, N. A. McFarlane, E. P. Gerber, G. Feingold, A. A. Scaife, and W. W. Grabowski, 2013: Climate Processes: Clouds, Aerosols and Dynamics. Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modelling and Prediction Priorities, G. R. Asrar and J. W. Hurrell, Eds. 73-103, doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_4.
The Role of High-Latitude Waves in the Intraseasonal to Seasonal Variability of Tropical Upwelling in the Brewer–Dobson Circulation
Ueyama, R., E. P. Gerber, J. M. Wallace and D. M. W. Frierson, 2013: The role of high-latitude waves in the intraseasonal to seasonal variability of tropical upwelling in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 1631-1648, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0174.1.
Understanding Hadley Cell Expansion versus Contraction: Insights from Simplified Models and Implications for Recent Observations
Tandon, N. F., E. P. Gerber, A. H. Sobel, and L. M. Polvani, 2013: Understanding Hadley Cell Expansion vs. Contraction: Insights from Simplified Models and Implications for Recent Observations. J. Climate, 26, 4304-4321, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00598.1.
Compensation between Resolved and Unresolved Wave Driving in the Stratosphere: Implications for Downward Control
Cohen, N. Y., E. P. Gerber, and O. Buhler, 2013: Compensation between Resolved and Unresolved Wave Driving in the Stratosphere: Implications for Downward Control . J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 3780-3798, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0346.1.
Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere‐troposphere coupling
Manzini, E., A. Yu. Karpechko and 21 Coauthors (including E. P. Gerber), 2014: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere – troposphere coupling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 7979–7998, doi:10.1002/2013JD021403.
Quantifying the Summertime Response of the Austral Jet Stream and Hadley Cell to Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gases
Gerber, E. P. and S.-W. Son, 2014: Quantifying the Summertime Response of the Austral Jet Stream and Hadley Cell to Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. J. Climate, 27, 5538-5559, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00539.1.
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts
Tripathi, O. and 15 Coauthors (including E. P. Gerber), 2014: Review: The Predictability of the Extra-tropical Stratosphere on monthly timescales and its Impacts on the Skill of Tropospheric Forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 141, 987-1003, doi:10.1002/qj.2432.
Zurita-Gotor, P., J. Blanco-Fuentes, and E. P. Gerber, 2014: The impact of baroclinic eddy feedback on the persistence of jet variability in the two layer model. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 410-429, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0102.1.
Seasonal Variability of the Polar Stratospheric Vortex in an Idealized AGCM with Varying Tropospheric Wave Forcing
Sheshadri, A., R. A. Plumb, and E. P. Gerber, 2015: Seasonal Variability of the Polar Stratospheric Vortex in an Idealized AGCM with Varying Tropospheric Wave Forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2256–2273, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0191.1.
Rossby Waves Mediate Impacts of Tropical Oceans on West Antarctic Atmospheric Circulation in Austral Winter
Li, X., D. H. Holland, E. P. Gerber, and C. Yoo, 2015: Rossby Waves Mediate Impacts of Tropical Oceans on West Antarctic Atmospheric Circulation in Austral Winter. J. Climate, 28, 8151-8164, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0113.1.
Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression
Wenzel, S., V. Eyring, E. P. Gerber and A. Yu. Karpechko 2016: Constraining Future Austral Jet Stream Position and Shifts in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression, J. Climate, 9, 673-687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1.
Oberlaender-Hayn, S., E. P. Gerber, J. Abalichin, H. Akiyoshi, A. Kerschbaumer, A. Kubin, M. Kunze, U. Langematz, S. Meul, M. Michou, O. Morgenstern and L. D. Oman, 2016: Is the Brewer-Dobson circulation increasing, or moving upward? Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2015GL067545.
Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems
Tripathi, O. P., M. Baldwin, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Charron, J. C. H. Cheung, S. D. Eckermann, E. Gerber, D. R. Jackson, Y. Kuroda, A. Lang, J. McLay, R. Mizuta, C. Reynolds, G. Roff, M. Sigmond, S.-W. Son, and T. Stockdale, 2016: Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems, Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1935-1960 doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1.
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6
Zanchettin, D. and 23 coauthors (including E. P. Gerber), 2016: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016.
The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World
Pendergrass, A. and E. P. Gerber, 2016: The rain is askew: Two idealized models relating the vertical velocity and precipitation distributions in a warming world, J. Climate, 29, 6445-6462, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0097.1.
The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system
Gerber, E. P. and E. Manzini, 2016: The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: Assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3413-3425, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3413-2016.
Linz, M., R. A. Plumb, E. P. Gerber, and A. Sheshadri 2016: The relationship between age of air and the diabatic circulation of the stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 4507-4518, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0125.1.
Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems
Fujiwara, M., Wright, J., and 34 coauthors (including E. P. Gerber), 2017: Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (SRIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1417-1452, doi:10.5194/acp-17-1417-2017.
Kim, J., S.-W. Son, E. P. Gerber, and H.-S. Park, 2017: Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Models: Accounting for Biases in Model Climatologies, J. Climate, 30, 5529-5546, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0465.1
Linz, M., R. A. Plumb, E. P. Gerber, F. J. Haenel, G. Stiller, D. E. Kinnison, A. Ming, and J. L. Neu, 2017: The strength of the meridional overturning circulation of the stratosphere, Nature Geo., 10, 663-667, doi:10.1038/ngeo3013.
Isca, v1.0: A Framework for the Global Modelling of the Atmospheres of Earth and Other Planets at Varying Levels of Complexity
Vallis, G. K., G. Colyer, R. Geen, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, P. Maher, A. Paterson, M. Pietschnig, J. Penn, and S. I. Thomson, 2018: Isca, v1.0: A Framework for the Global Modelling of the Atmospheres of Earth and Other Planets at Varying Levels of Complexity. Geosci. Model. Dev., 11, 843-859, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-843-2018.
Gerber, E. P. and P. Martineau, 2018: Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: Reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 17099-17117, doi:10.5194/acp-18-17099-2018.
White, I., C. Garfinkel, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, V. Aquila, and L. Oman, 2019: The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors, J. Climate, 32, 85-108 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1.
Butler, A., A. Charlton-Perez, D. I. V. Domeisen, C. Garfinkel, E. P. Gerber, P. Hitchcock, A. Y. Karpechko, A. C. Maycock, M. Sigmond, I. Simpson, and S.-W. Son, 2019: Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere, Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, A. W. Robserton and F. Vitart, Eds., 223-241, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00011-5.
The Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions: The Key Roles of Stratospheric Warming and Eddy Interactions
DallaSanta, K., E. P. Gerber, and M. Toohey, 2019: The Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions: The Key Roles of Stratospheric Warming and Eddy Interactions, J. Climate, 32, 1101-1120, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0099.1.
Maher, P., E. P. Gerber, B. Medeiros, T. Merlis, S. Sherwood, A. Sheshadri, A. Sobel, G. Vallis, A. Voigt, and P. Zurita-Gotor, 2019: Model hierarchies for understanding atmospheric circulation, Rev. Geophys., 57, 250-280, doi:10.1029/2018RG000607.
Garfinkel, C. I., I. White, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, and M. Erez, 2020: The building blocks of Northern Hemisphere wintertime stationary waves, J. Climate, 33, 5611–5633, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0181.1.
White, I., C. I. Garfinkel, E. P. Gerber, M. Jucker, P. Hitchcock, and J. Rao, 2020: The generic nature of the tropospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, J. Climate, 33, 5589–5610, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0697.1.
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models
Ayarzagüena, B., A. J. Charlton-Perez, A. H. Butler, P. Hitchcock, I. R. Simpson, L. M. Polvani, N. Butchart, E. P. Gerber, L. Gray, B. Hassler, P. Lin, F. Lott, E. Manzini, R. Mizuta, C. Orbe, S. Osprey, D. Saint-Martin, M. Sigmond, M. Taguchi, E. M. Volodin, S. Watanabe, 2020: Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere-troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, e2019JD032345, doi:10.1029/2019JD032345.
Numerical impacts on tracer transport: A proposed intercomparison test of Atmospheric General Circulation Models
Gupta, A., E. P. Gerber, and P. H. Lauritzen, 2020: Numerical impacts on tracer transport: A proposed intercomparison test of Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Quart. J. Roy. Meteoro. Soc., 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.3881.
The impact of SST biases in the tropical east Pacific and Agulhas current region on atmospheric stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere
Garfinkel, C. I., I. White, E. P. Gerber, and M. Jucker, 2020: The impact of SST biases in the tropical east Pacific and Agulhas current region on atmospheric stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 33, 9351-9374, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0195.1.
Baldwin, M., B. Ayarzaguena, T. Birner, N. Butchart, A. H. Butler, A. J. Charlton-Perez, D. I. V. Domeisen, C. I. Garfinkel, H. Garny, E. P. Gerber, M. I. Hegglin, U. Langematz, N. M. Pedatella, 2021: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2020RG000708, doi:10.1029/2020RG000708.
Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?
Orr, A., H. Lu, P. Martineau, E. P. Gerber, G. Marshall, and T. J. Bracegirdle, 2021: Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7451–7472, doi:10.5194/acp-21-7451-2021.
Garfinkel, C. I, I. White, E. P. Gerber, O. Adam, and M. Jucker, 2021: Nonlinear Interaction between the Drivers of the Monsoon and Summertime Stationary Waves Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL092321, doi:10.1029/2020GL092321.
Numerical impacts on tracer transport: Diagnosing the influence of dynamical core formulation and resolution on stratospheric transport
Gupta, A., E. P. Gerber, R. A. Plumb, and P. H. Lauritzen, 2021: Numerical impacts on tracer transport: diagnosing the influence of dynamical core formulation and resolution on stratospheric transport, J. Atmos. Sci., 78, 3575-3592, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0085.1.
Li, X., W. Cai, G. A. Meehl , D. Chen , X. Yuan , M. Raphael, D. M. Holland, Q. Ding, R. L. Fogt, B. R. Markle, G. Wang, D. Bromwich, J. Turner , S.-P. Xie, S. T. Gille, C. Xiao, B. Wu, M. A. Lazzara, E. J. Steig, X. Chen, S. Stammerjohn, P. R. Holland, M. M. Holland, S. F. Price, Z. Wang, C. M. Bitz, J. Shi, X. Cheng, E. P. Gerber, X. Liang, H. Goosse, C. Yoo, M. Ding, L. Geng, M. Xin, C. Li, T. Dou, C. Liu, W. Sun, X. Wang, and C. Song, 2021:
Antarctic Climate Changes Attributable to Teleconnections from the Tropics,
Nature Rev. Earth Envir., 10.1038/s43017-021-00204-5.
Linz, M., R. A. Plumb, A. Gupta, and E. P. Gerber, 2021: Stratospheric adiabatic mixing rates derived from the vertical gradient of age of air, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2021JD035199, doi: 10.1029/2021JD035199.
Finkel, J., R. J. Webber, E. P. Gerber, D. S. Abbot, and J. Weare, 2021: Learning forecasts of rare stratospheric transitions from short simulations, Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 3647-3669, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-21-0024.1.
Gerber, E. P., P. Martineau, B. Ayarzaguena, D. Barriopedro, T. J. Bracegirdle, A. H. Butler, N. Calvo, S. C. Hardiman, P. Hitchcock, M. Iza, U. Langematz, H. Lua, G. Marshall, A. Orr, F. M. Palmeiro, S.-W. Son, and M. Taguchi, 2022: Extratropical Stratosphere–troposphere Coupling, In Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) (Chap. 6), M. Fujiwara, G. L. Manney, L. Gray, and J. S. Wright, Eds., SPARC Report No. 10, WCRP-6/2021, doi: 10.17874/800dee57d13, p. 221-264.
A QBO cookbook: Sensitivity of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to resolution, resolved waves, and parameterized gravity waves
Garfinkel, C. I., E. P. Gerber, O. Shamir, J. Rao, M. Jucker, I. White, and N. Paldor, 2022: A QBO cookbook: Sensitivity of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to resolution, resolved waves, and parameterized gravity waves,J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002568, doi: 10.1029/2021MS002568.
Machine Learning Gravity Wave Parameterization Generalizes to Capture the QBO and Response to Increased CO2
Espinosa, Z. I., A. Sheshadri, G. R. Cain, E. P. Gerber, and K. J. DallaSanta, 2022:
Machine Learning Gravity Wave Parameterization Generalizes to Capture the QBO and Response to Increased CO2,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL098174, doi:10.1029/2022GL098174.
On the time scales of midlatitude atmospheric variability: Eddy-mean flow interactions and coupling from on high
Modeling the extratropical jets: Connections between the mean climate, variability, and response to anthropogenic forcing
Untangling the tropical tropopause layer with an idealized moist model: Tropical vs. extratropical control
Volcanic eruptions: A natural case study for understanding the storm track response to external forcing
How to be a Successful Graduate Student: One Ex-student’s Insight on How to get through Graduate School and Find a Job
The Annular Modes in reanalyses: The value of conventional and surface-observation only based reanalyses in the Northern Hemisphere
The annular modes in reanalyses: The value of conventional and surface-observation input reanalyses in the Northern Hemisphere
The transport of trace gases through the stratosphere impacts surface climate. Small changes in stratospheric water vapor, on the order of one part per million, can impact surface temperature by as much as a tenth of a degree. A sudden drop in stratospheric water vapor of this magnitude – a response to internal variability of the atmosphere – was observed in 2000. Chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric ozone also depend critically on the transport of ozone and ozone depleting substances, and biases in transport are a leading source of uncertainty in the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Volcanic aerosols (and the possibility of injecting sulfur into the stratosphere for climate intervention) provides another example of the importance of stratospheric tracer transport for the climate at the surface.
The annular modes of the extratropical atmosphere have received much attention for quantifying and predicting variability of the jet streams and storm tracks, despite the limited zonal coherence of midlatitude variability. In the tropics, annular Huctuations of the circulation have not been investigated, despite the comparative dominance of zonal-mean variations in this region, associated with weak temperature gradients at low latitudes.
This is my first ever virtual colloquium visit. From the comforts of my own office, I’ll present my talk over the internet, coupled with a day of virtual meetings with students, postdocs, and faculty. The goal is to reduce our CO2 footprint – something our field should mindful of more than any other – but it will also help reduce the “family footprint”, i.e. the impact on spouses left to deal with kids who tend to get sick this time of year. Ugh. Only catch is that the seminar is 3:30 pm on a Friday, Pacific time!
Postponed due to COVID-19.
A virtual visit to Korea, giving me the chance to speak into the future. My talk will be Thursday 8 October at 9 am for the audience, 8 pm on Wednesday for me!
A virtual visit to Israel…
Abrupt changes in the extratropical circulation of the atmosphere: Dynamic vs. Thermodynamic Regimes
A virtual presentation this year. A pre-recorded talk plus 4 minutes of discussion at 11:30 pm, EST. O brave new world, with such meetings in it!
A virtual visit to London…
This virtual conference was organized by the newly minted Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation.
First Year Seminar, Fall, 2018
Thursdays, 2:00-4:30, Warren Weaver Hall 1314
Office Hours: Wednesday 2-3 pm and Thursday 1-2 pm, Warren Weaver Hall 911
MATH-UA 228 / ENVST-UA 360, Spring, 2019
Lectures: Monday and Wednesday, 9:30-10:45, Warren Weaver Hall 312
Laboratory: Friday, 9:30-10:45, Warren Weaver Hall 517
Office Hours: Monday and Wednesday, 11-12, Warren Weaver Hall 911
First Year Seminar, Fall, 2019
Thursdays, 2:00-4:30, Warren Weaver Hall 1314
Office Hours: Wednesday 2-3 pm and Thursday 1-2 pm, Warren Weaver Hall 911
MATH-GA 3004, Spring, 2020
Lectures: Tuesday 1:25-3:15 pm, Warren Weaver Hall 512
Office Hours: Tuesday 3:30-4:30 and Wednesday 2:30-3:30, Warren Weaver Hall 911
MATH-UA 262, Fall, 2020
Lectures: Monday and Wednesday 2:00-3:15 pm, online
Office Hours: Tuesday 2:00-3:00 pm and Wednesday 8:30-9:30 pm, online
MATH-GA 3011, Spring, 2021
Lectures: Thusday 9:00 - 10:50 am Eastern Time (New York) on Zoom.
Office Hours: By appointment
MATH-UA 262, Fall, 2021
Lectures: Monday and Wednesday 2:00-3:15 pm, Kimmel 914
Office Hours: Monday and Tuesday 3:30-4:30 pm, Warren Weaver 911
MATH-UA 262, Spring, 2022
Lectures: Monday and Wednesday 9:30-10:45 pm, Warren Weaver 512
Office Hours: Monday 1:30-20:30 pm and Wednesday 11:00 am - 12:00 noon (Virtual)