Stationary waves weaken and delay the near-surface response to stratospheric ozone depletion
Published in Journal of Climate, 2023
Garfinkel, C. I., I. White, E. P. Gerber, S.-W. Son and M. Jucker, 2023: Stationary waves weaken and delay the near-surface response to stratospheric ozone depletion, J. Climate, 36(2), 565-583, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0874.1.
An intermediate complexity moist General Circulation Model is used to investigate the factors controlling the magnitude of the surface impact from Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion. In contrast to previous idealized studies, a model with full radiation is used, and further, the model can be run with a varied representation of the surface, from a zonally uniform aquaplanet to a configuration with realistic stationary waves. The model captures the observed summertime positive Southern Annular Mode response to stratospheric ozone depletion. While synoptic waves dominate the long-term poleward jet shift, the initial response includes changes in planetary waves which simultaneously moderate the polar cap cooling (i.e., a negative feedback), but also constitute nearly half of the initial momentum flux response that shifts the jet polewards. The net effect is that stationary waves weaken the circulation response to ozone depletion in both the stratosphere and troposphere, and also delay the response until summer rather than spring when ozone depletion peaks. It is also found that Antarctic surface cooling in response to ozone depletion helps strengthen the poleward shift, however shortwave surface effects of ozone are not critical. These surface temperature and stationary wave feedbacks are strong enough to overwhelm the previously recognized jet latitude/persistance feedback, potentially explaining why some recent comprehensive models do not exhibit a clear relationship between jet latitude/persistance and the magnitude of the response to ozone. Finally, the jet response is shown to be linear with respect to the magnitude of the imposed stratospheric perturbation, demonstrating the usefulness of interannual variability in ozone depletion for subseasonal forecasting.