Model hierarchies for understanding atmospheric circulation!
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News
2019
See you at the AMS Annual Meeting!
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Coming to the AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix next week (6-10 January)? Check out these presentations!
2018
What limits our ability to characterize the variability of the large scale circulation of the extratropics?
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Please see our paper Quantifying the variability of the annular modes: Reanalysis uncertainty vs. sampling uncertainty, just accepted in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Patrick Martineau and I show that reanalyses have gotten quite good, and we are chiefly limited by the finite length of the observational records. In this sense, we are starved for data, not model physics!
Can we make useful forecasts beyond a couple weeks?
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Deterministic weather forecast are only possible for one to two weeks. (Or in other words, we just can’t predict whether it will be sunny or rainy 14 days from now.) But can we say something about the weather over the next few weeks, for example, will it be warmer and drier than average, even if we can’t say exactly which days will be sunny?
Why do only some Sudden Stratospheric Warmings bring stormy weather?
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Why do some Sudden Stratospheric Warmings appear to influence the troposphere, shifting the jet stream equatorward over the next 2-3 months, while others don’t? Much of the issue is tropospheric variability, which can overwhelm the influence of the stratosphere. However, our recent study, The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors shows that there are regional patterns that can help us predict whether a Sudden Warming is more likely to have an influence on the troposphere!